文|刘琪的商业观察
“你对做电商还有兴奋感么？”我最近曾半开玩笑问一个朋友，朋友叹了一句说，对整天盯销售数据已经厌倦了。
从2013年下半年起，我就有一种强烈的预感，从媒体从业者角度说，电商新闻红利已经逐渐消失了，这个行业已不再享受风光无限的激情岁月。你所能感到的就是无数个日夜里，一群人围绕着流量、转化率、复购率、效率以及供应链等后台数据，熬着，奋斗着。
到了2014年，随着京东、阿里陆续上市，大平台格局已定，垂直电商回归基本面，电商变得越来越像一个传统行业，或者说单纯的电商行业正变得无关紧要，这就是所有电商人正在面临的现实。
我们还要承受一种恐慌，它来自于移动互联网的倍速进化、90后崛起论、内容与营销的复杂变革等诸多方面，甚至资深从业者的年龄都成为了一种挑战。
事情总得有人来做，所以如果非要给2015年的电商做一个预测，我更希望从大趋势与电商从业者的抉择，来写一点感性的粗浅想法：
1、如果你还在大平台机体内，不幸之处在于，2015年大平台之间的激战会更为激烈
所有的大平台都是卖白菜的架子、卖白粉的心，就是说用低利润甚至免费业务吸引流量，最终通过广告、金融、技术服务等增值业务挣钱。所以，你会发现BAT、京东等大平台已经进入了焦灼的状态，互相进入对方的领地，在一些高价值的潜力地带，比如互联网金融、互联网教育、O2O、医药、汽车、旅游、家装、智能硬件等领域，几家平台商的争夺会越来越激烈。
对平台之外的人来说，好处在于你会迎来一个资本和服务的红利期，坏处在于你可能要衡量站队的问题。
对平台内的人来说，苦衷也不是没有。比如，产品强的，要硬着头皮做各种运营；运营强的，老板硬逼着做产品，却又不能给与足够的孵化耐心。我自己的观察是，但凡做到一定的高位，多数最终会选择离开大平台，这是新老交替的自然结果，也是一种平台瓶颈期的无奈之举。
2、恭喜你，可以迎来一个创业的好年代，虽然创业是九死一生，但现在的试错成本和创业环境相比以前，要好转很多
前些日子看到吴晓波老师也在预测2015经济走向，他的判断是我们会迎来第四波的创业潮，多为是80后、90后，聚集区域在新消费与互联网领域。此前三波创业潮分别是在1984年、1992年南巡和1999年的互联网浪潮。
这一波创业潮大致有两个我看好的地方：
一是阿里、京东等大平台高管在上市退出后的创业或者投资潮，不出意料，他们会将在互联网平台的经验与人脉应用于新的创业领域，能量自然是有所加持。
二是消费升级带来的机遇。现在的消费升级可以从两个角度理解，其一是将原本属于部分人或特定区域才能享受的服务平民化，O2O上门、专车服务就是一例，这也是我看好易到用车、美到家等创业公司的原因；其二就是降维打击，利用互联网思维（思想）去重新改造传统服务业，这是一种跨界的降维打击，几乎每个细分行业领域都会出现一个颠覆者，原因不在于互联网公司有多牛，更多在于传统的服务者很多年都没有自我升级的动力（比如租车、家装、美容等），而消费者会愿意为好服务或特别的产品，付出一定的额外溢价。因此，颠覆者只要比传统势力稍微做好一点，就足以获得领跑优势。
3、说说品牌电商值得忧虑的几个地方
高SKU、缺爆款、无调性的品牌商，会不会被精品爆款电商所击败？为何小米、优衣库可以在各自领域以“基本款”横扫对手，为何像七匹狼这样的品牌都要做单品爆款尝试，这说明产品的重要性已经超过了品牌，用户会通过产品来认知品牌，并产生忠诚度，而不是你的广告或者折扣券，否则也不会出现某些品牌“不促不销”的怪现象。
用户的社群化、细分化是网购人口红利放缓之后，所有人都遇到的一个问题。像韩都衣舍、茵曼等正在做新的内容营销，包括做针对细分人群的子品牌，甚至要玩出调性，营造社群氛围。
移动端占比逐渐水涨船高后，是好是坏？不少人愿意高调宣布自己的移动端占比，但殊不知压力也随之而来，移动端似乎更适合精品爆款、深库存，业务逻辑与PC端差异极大。此外，品牌商还需要出现各种移动端的“流”上，比如社交、视频、图片等刚需APP的占用时长越来越高，品牌商需要以信息流的方式融入其中，但这些移动渠道恰恰又是跨界的、碎片化的，又如何去做整合，运营后端如何管理？
4、“去中心化”越看越像一个伪命题，去中心化不是不要中心，而是选择一个自由连接度更高、运转更有效率的中心
微信电商一度让马云们很紧张，口袋购物也因为推出“微店”App而获得资本方的青睐，雕爷的河狸家也说解放手工艺人，百度也要做“连接一切人和服务”，京东拍拍也是奔着去中心化的路子……看上去，“去中心化”已经成为有再造平台梦想的标配组件，问题是，这并不是完全消灭中心（中介），它更像是消灭传统中介，另造一个新的山头。
所以，去中介化的核心有二，一是将中心节点的欲望降低到极致，弱化到如水电一般，提供更自由的连接度，而不是传统意义上的推荐、广告位等；二是提升效率，至少你要比传统的中介在信息传递和资源匹配上，做到更快、更合理。
仅拿微店、微商来说，C、小B以及大B的货就在那里放着，服务行业的固定资产、空闲时间也在那里放着，谁能够帮忙它们解决解决效率问题，让货品或服务以最小成本、最短路径流转，谁才是“去中心化”潮流的真正赢者。
所以，有可能会倒下一批打着“去中心化”旗号，却无法解决自由连接度以及运转效率问题的公司，但愿这只是一种揣测。
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